【報告摘要】

This study examines how mergers and acquisitions (M&A) laws influence sell-side analysts' forecast optimism. While prior research attributes analyst optimism largely to personal incentives such as career advancement and commission-based compensation, we develop a new theoretical framework that emphasizes broader strategic motives. Specifically, we propose that analysts increase forecast optimism as a strategic response to protect their accumulated firm-specific knowledge and mitigate risks associated with their portfolio instability, particularly in the face of regulatory changes. We use the passage of M&A laws, which increase takeover threats and therefore the risk of analyst portfolio disruption, as an ideal setting to test this theory. Using a difference-in-differences design and a sample of over 30,000 firm-year observations from 33 countries, we find a significant increase in analyst forecast optimism following M&A law reforms. This effect is more pronounced in countries with stronger investor protections and for laws that actively promote takeover activity. Our findings suggest that M&A laws inadvertently drive analysts to issue more optimistic forecasts as a strategic response to regulatory shifts, providing new insights into the dynamics of analyst behavior under changing market conditions.

【報告人簡介】

Tracy Wang，澳大利亞國立大學(xué)會計學(xué)副教授。博士畢業(yè)于澳大利亞國立大學(xué)會計學(xué)專業(yè)。她的學(xué)術(shù)研究主要集中在公司信息披露與監(jiān)管、環(huán)境與社會責(zé)任以及公司治理等前沿領(lǐng)域。過去十年間在國際頂級學(xué)術(shù)期刊上發(fā)表了近40篇論文，包括Journal of Accounting and Economics、Contemporary Accounting Research、Review of Accounting Studies、Journal of International Business Studies、Organization Science 、Journal of Corporate Finance 等。她現(xiàn)任Accounting & Finance 的副主編（Deputy Editor），并擔(dān)任 The International Journal of Accounting ESG 專題的客座編輯。同時，她創(chuàng)立并擔(dān)任澳大利亞與新西蘭會計與金融協(xié)會（AFAANZ）ESG Special Interest Group的主席。她的研究被國際領(lǐng)先的商業(yè)媒體（如 Institutional Investor）廣泛報道，并多次榮獲國際頂級學(xué)術(shù)期刊與會議的最佳論文獎（Best Paper Awards），展現(xiàn)了其研究的實踐價值和國際影響力。

【特別提醒】

未經(jīng)論文作者和主辦方允許，嚴(yán)禁將講座內(nèi)容錄制并公開傳播，違者將有可能被追究法律責(zé)任。

撰稿：曲琦 審核：許浩然 單位：東北財經(jīng)大學(xué)會計學(xué)院 遼寧省資本市場財務(wù)與會計研究生創(chuàng)新與學(xué)術(shù)交流中心